Braxton Taylor
The race to return to the Moon and push beyond has entered a new, more intense phase. While Elon Musk and NASA have been arguing over whether to go to the Moon or Mars, China’s recently published space-sciences plan declares its intent to surpass the United States and become the world’s preeminent space power.
In October, Beijing released its first “National Space Science Medium and Long-Term Development Plan,” a strategic blueprint for developing its space-based science and technology sector and achieving dominance in the space domain. Transcending mere astronomical pursuits, it prioritizes the establishment of a permanently manned lunar research station, the exploitation of lunar resources, and, ultimately, a manned mission to Mars. The overarching objective is unambiguous: to position China at the “international forefront” of spacefaring nations.
The plan unfolds in three stages. The initial phase, lasting through 2027, concentrates on solidifying foundational technological capabilities and mission success in a number of fields. This includes further unmanned lunar exploration and developing core competencies for Mars missions. The second phase, from 2028 to 2035, envisions China using these advancements to land taikonauts on the Moon, establish a permanent base there, and execute complex manned missions to Mars. The final phase, culminating in 2050, foresees China dispatching manned missions to other celestial bodies, solidifying itself as the preeminent center of space science innovation.
The strategic implications of a robust space sector are far-reaching. History demonstrates that investments in space exploration yield significant terrestrial benefits, as exemplified by the development of the Global Positioning System (GPS), a derivative of the U.S. Navy’s NAVSTAR project conceived during the Cold War space race. Beyond technological spinoffs like better solar panels, advanced building materials, and advancements in agriculture, space programs also catalyze STEM education, generating substantial downstream economic effects.
With these goals in mind, China is set on establishing a lunar base in the near future. Scientists believe the Moon likely holds large reserves of helium-3, a rare isotope that is ideal for achieving clean and safe nuclear fusion reactors. Furthermore, the Moon is an ideal testing ground for developing deep-space exploration and habitation technologies. With a travel time of only three days, the Moon will allow real, on-the-ground implementation of building techniques for permanent settlement beyond the Earth, while still being close enough to enable a response in case of an emergency. Finally, the Moon has ample frozen water ice and no atmosphere, making it an ideal staging and resupply point for missions to Mars or asteroid belt mining, significantly reducing payload constraints. Chinese Academy of Sciences member Ouyang Ziyuan has described the ideal Moon base as a “transit station” for humans to continue out into the deeper solar system.
China has already made significant strides in the past few years, reaching key milestones and accumulating critical mission experience. These growing capabilities are underscored by last June’s Chang’e 6 mission, which repeated the novel feat of landing on the Moon’s far side. The mission returned to Earth with data and samples that illuminate the Moon’s geological activities and the effects of thin atmosphere on surface conditions. These achievements propelled China to sign a flurry of agreements and joint research projects, culminating in the announcement of the International Lunar Research Station project. The project aims for a functional base on the Moon’s South Pole by 2035, with further expansion by 2045. The number of countries that have signed on to the project has nearly doubled since its announcement last April, signaling strong interest from the international community. Preliminary groundwork for the lunar base is slated to commence with the Chang’e 8 in 2028, focusing on site selection, while a manned lunar landing is projected for 2030.
If this momentum holds, China will also be well-positioned to take the lead in key missions to Mars. China first set its sights on the red planet in 2020 with the launch of the Tianwen-1 probe. This mission laid the groundwork for an eventual crewed landing by scanning Mars for water ice in orbit, checking soil conditions, and landing a rover at a site thought to contain large underground reserves of water. The planned Tianwen-3 mission, with an anticipated launch date of 2028, will mark a critical juncture in the second phase of the Space Development Plan. If successful, Tianwen-3 will return Martian soil samples two years ahead of NASA’s projected timeline. This will provide invaluable scientific data and, crucially, demonstrate the capability to safely return a mission from Mars, a prerequisite for any future manned endeavor. China’s Space Development Plan outlines a manned mission to Mars by 2031, contingent upon the success of Tianwen-3. Ultimately, China is pursuing a sustained presence on Mars and is already experimenting with Martian regolith-based construction materials.
These ambitious endeavors are underpinned by a sustained commitment to the space program dating back decades. Although the Space Development Plan is the first unified, national-level framework for space science, it is built on a foundation of policy support, funding, and agency-specific development goals. Project 921, initiated in 1992 with an inflation-adjusted budget of about $2 billion, culminated in the successful deployment of the Tiangong-1 space station in 2011. By the start of 2013, estimates pushed China’s support of its space program up to over $10 billion, then second only to the United States. Current estimates suggest this number has risen further to $14 billion, representing a three-fold increase in financial support from 1992 to 2023.
China’s lunar and Martian aspirations were first articulated in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan in 2007, which outlined plans for a lunar rover landing and initial Mars surveys. The most recent Fourteenth Five-Year Plan of 2021 highlighted achievements in lunar exploration and called for further development of China’s commercial space sector, reusable launch vehicle technology, and robust satellite constellations. The Space Development Plan represents a concerted effort by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the China National Space Administration, the PLA’s China Manned Space Agency, and other key stakeholders to synchronize planning and execution of these ambitious objectives.
Whether China can stick to its timelines and development goals is yet to be determined. Yet, the new Space Development Plan, and the programs being developed to implement it, point towards a confident space power, focused on reaching key locales off-Earth, well before NASA.
Thomas Corbett is a research analyst with BluePath Labs. His areas of focus include Chinese foreign relations, emerging technology, and Indo-Pacific security studies.
P.W. Singer is Strategist at New America and the author of multiple books on technology and security, including Wired for War, Ghost Fleet, Burn-In, and LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media.
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