Braxton Taylor
Nearly 100 Israeli jets carried out a series of daring airstrikes inside Iran early Saturday, ending nearly four weeks of suspense following Iran’s October 1 missile attack on Israel, which featured at least 180 ballistic missiles.
The Israeli strikes were conducted in three waves, and “targeted around 20 locations around Tehran and western Iran, including vital air defense assets and facilities tied to the Iranian drone and missile programs,” according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. The strikes killed four Iranian soldiers, “presumably at the air defense sites that the [Israeli jets] struck,” ISW reports.
One target included a solid-propellant rocket motor plant in Parchin, southeast of Tehran. The facilities were inaugurated just three years ago, according to researcher Fabian Hinz of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, based in London.
“Targeted buildings appear to be related to propellant mixing and casting,” which suggests “Israel targeted a critical bottleneck in the missile production process (similar to its previous campaigns against missile production infrastructure in Syrian and Lebanon),” Hinz wrote Saturday on social media. The Iranians had also used the Parchin facilities “for high explosives testing in support of its nuclear weapons program,” according to ISW.
One suspected consequence: “The mixers are highly sophisticated equipment that Iran cannot produce on its own and must purchase from China,” which could take several months, Israeli officials told Axios. Other targets included a radar installation and an alleged drone factory.
- In photos: The Associated Press published post-strike satellite imagery from Planet Labs on Sunday. Review those images, here.
Tactical note: “The IDF struck several locations in Iraq and Syria…likely targeting early warning radars and sensors that would have given Iran advanced notice,” ISW writes. “Iran has in recent years worked to build an early detection network across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in order to better defend against Israeli airstrikes,” the think note explained.
The Israelis also destroyed four Russian-made S-300 air defense batteries inside Iran, which are “the most advanced air defense system that Iran operates,” ISW reported.
Why that matters: “Russia’s traditional customers have lost faith in the country’s defense industry and are looking for new suppliers,” Singapore-based researcher Ian Storey told the Wall Street Journal.
Relatedly, “Moscow’s foreign weapons sales fell 52% last year from 2022,” according to researchers in Stockholm, who predicted (PDF) this past March that “Russian arms exports are likely to remain well below the level reached in 2014-18, for at least the short term.”
According to the White House, “The President and his national security team, of course, worked with the Israelis over recent weeks to encourage Israel to conduct a response that was targeted and proportional with low risk of civilian harm, and that appears to have been precisely what transpired this evening,” U.S. officials said after the Israeli strikes. “Should Iran choose to respond, we are fully prepared to once again defend against any attack,” the official said.
Big-picture consideration: “Israel remains in control of the escalation and could decide to press home its advantage,” writes Emile Hokayem of IISS. “Israeli officials believe that the country’s operational competence and success on the battlefield will overcome whatever political and moral qualms the Americans, Europeans and Arabs have about its conduct of these wars,” he added.
Meanwhile, Israeli “defence planners are probably putting more ideas on the table,” said Hokayem. “But, like the Iranians, Netanyahu should beware the seductions of hubris,” he warned.
Welcome to this Monday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. Share your newsletter tips, reading recommendations, or feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1962, the Cuban missile crisis finally ended after 13 days.
Between Kyiv and Moscow
Invading Russian forces continue their incremental advances in eastern Ukraine, as Rob Lee illustrated in maps early Monday. “Russian advances have accelerated over the past week on the Selydove, Kurakhivka, and Vuhledar fronts,” he said. However, none of the advances seem to be terribly decisive, according to ISW’s Sunday analysis.
Update: Ukrainian officials claim “North Korean shells are poor quality and do not hit their targets or explode at the right time” around the Kharkiv front, where an estimated 60 percent of the 122mm and 152mm artillery ammunition Russia uses is from North Korea.
Developing: Russia’s economy is on the verge of “overheating” due in large part to its excessive defense spending, the Washington Post reported Sunday. Still, “Russia can afford to fund its war in Ukraine for several more years…because of massive oil revenue and Western sanctions failures.”
Russia’s Central Bank also recently raised its key rate to 21%, which is “the highest rate of the Putin era,” economist Janis Kluge noted Friday. He added, “One reason why the Russian Central Bank struggles to control inflation is that interest rates hardly influence the ruble exchange rate. Before 2022, higher rates would lead to a stronger ruble, leading to lower prices in Russia. This doesn’t work anymore due to war & sanctions.”
However, none of this means Vladimir Putin is at all interested in slowing his Ukraine invasion, Kluge noted Friday as well.
Additional reading:
Russia’s election meddling, continued
The U.S. intelligence community announced Friday Russian actors are responsible for “a recent video that falsely depicted an individual ripping up ballots in Pennsylvania.”
Meanwhile, U.S. efforts to protect democracy elsewhere could fade under Trump. American aid was key to the recent free and fair elections in Moldova, whose citizens overcame Russian influence to assert their desire to join the European Union. Donald Trump tried to cut that aid as president and has promised to do so again. More, here.
And Saturday’s elections in Georgia appear to have been tainted by Russian influence—to the point that 10 Western countries, led by Germany and repped by heads of Foreign Affairs Committees and Parliament leaders, say they are not recognizing the results. Read their joint statement.
China
China’s chip chokepoints. Making the world’s most advanced computer chips is complex and difficult. In the latest installment of “The China Intelligence,” Peter Singer and the BluePath Labs crew list the steps Chinese firms have not yet mastered—and the leverage that gives the U.S. and its allies. Read, here.
Related: “TSMC’s Arizona Chip Production Yields Surpass Taiwan’s in Win for US Push,” from Bloomberg.
Hackers affiliated with the Chinese government collected audio from the phone calls of U.S. political figures, the Washington Post reports, citing “three people familiar with the matter.” A federal investigation is underway to ascertain how many people’s communications have been accessed by the Salt Typhoon group; so far, fewer than 100 people appear to have been targeted, including an unnamed Trump campaign adviser.
WaPo: “The wide-ranging operation has involved at least 10 telecom companies, including major carriers such as AT&T, Verizon and Lumen. At least one U.S. official was notified late last week that a personal cellphone had been accessed by the Salt Typhoon hackers, said one of the people familiar with the matter.”
Salt Typhoon is also thought to have hacked the system that tracks federal requests for wiretaps. The FBI declined to comment on the matter. A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington has previously said it was unaware of the operation. Read on, here.
Related reading:
Etc.
Boeing is looking to sell its space business, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday. “The effort, part of a strategy by Boeing’s new Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg to streamline the company and stem its financial losses, is at an early stage and might not result in a deal.” More, here.
ICYMI: Ortberg said shedding businesses might be necessary during his third-quarter earnings call with analysts last week. Boeing will look to “do less and do better,” the CEO said: defense and commercial aircraft will remain at the company’s core, but “some things on the fringe” might have to go. Defense One’s Audrey Decker reported Wednesday.
And lastly: U.S. Africa Command has declared OpenAI’s technology “essential” to its mission. A September 30 acquisition document justifying a sole-source contract marks the first known purchase of OpenAI services by a combat unit, The Intercept reported on Friday. “This new document reflects AFRICOM’s desire to bypass contracting red tape and buy immediately Microsoft Azure cloud services, including OpenAI software, without considering other vendors. AFRICOM states that the ‘ability to support advanced AI/ML workloads is crucial. This includes services for search, natural language processing, [machine learning], and unified analytics for data processing’.” Sam Biddle writes.
The order comes less than a year after OpenAI reversed its stance against doing business with the military. That policy rewrite came last January. Read on, here.
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