THE HAGUE—NATO officials predict that Russia will continue to make slow gains in Ukraine this summer despite taking high casualties—a situation that remains bleak with few signs of a breakthrough for either side.
“The real bottom line is the situation on the battlefield continues to be difficult. Ukraine continues to show a lot of innovative spirit…but we’re in for a stressful and difficult summer,” a senior NATO official told reporters Tuesday at the NATO Summit on condition of anonymity.
Russia continues to make “steady advances” in Sumy, an oblast in northeast Ukraine, and appears to be creating a buffer zone around Ukraine’s Kursk incursion, the official said. Russian forces are also intensifying operations in Zaporizhzhia in southeast Ukraine, the official added.
Still, the official didn’t foresee major front-line changes. Despite pressure across the front, Russia lacks the reserves to take advantage of any breakthrough. Russian forces have taken about 1,300 casualties a day this year, the official said, and now have more than a million dead and wounded soldiers.
Russia’s ability to produce weapons remains strong. Production includes about 130 new and refurbished tanks per month, and roughly 3 million artillery shells per year. (The U.S. Army aims to hit 1 million shells per year in 2026.)
But while the country’s military sector is running at full capacity, Russian officials have warned that the country’s economy could be on the brink of recession. The country is operating with a “very strained” civilian population, the official said.
“Industrial capacity is operating at a maximum, but you have labor shortages, significant budget deficits, which are being funded partly by the national welfare fund, but that is starting to run quite low. In fact, the sovereign wealth fund has fallen from $150 billion down to $37 billion. So all this is certainly putting a strain on the Russian economy,” they said.
But Russia will still be able to finance the war at least until 2027, the official predicted: “Essentially, the Kremlin is making trade-offs for long-term economic health back in Russia, for the short-term financing of this war.”
And hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflict remain dim. The official said that NATO continues to doubt that Russia has any interest in meaningful ceasefire negotiations.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a relatively subdued appearance at the summit Tuesday. In his speech, Zelensky pushed for more support, and argued that Putin has plans to wage war on other European nations, but wasn’t in the limelight compared to last year’s summit.
The NATO official declined to back up Zelensky’s claim that Russia is planning another invasion, and said Putin takes Article Five “very, very seriously,” and pointed to NATO’s new defense spending target as a deterrent.
Uncertainty around future support for Ukraine continues to hang over the summit. While NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte continues to stress support, the Trump administration has shown little desire to send weapons to Ukraine.
During another briefing with reporters, one senior NATO official said that so far, U.S. assistance to Ukraine has continued and that it wouldn’t run out “soon,” but declined to say what might happen after the Biden-approved assistance runs out.
Meanwhile, the official said, the war between Israel and Iran will slow the latter’s arms exports to Russia.
“Recent hostilities that we’ve seen between Israel and Iran certainly will negatively impact Iran’s future provision of equipment to Russia—specifically, ballistic missiles and artillery munitions,” the official said. “So I think that Iran is going to likely need to focus on restocking its own supplies, so less capacity to build these for Russia. However, I think that will have less, not as much, of a major strategic impact on the battlefield.”
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