The effort to replace the Minuteman III has gone so badly that the Air Force is now considering operating the already-half-century-old ICBM until 2050, according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office.
“The Air Force reported to Congress in 2021 that Minuteman III would reach the end of its service life in 2036. Now, facing delays to Sentinel, the Air Force is evaluating options to continue operating Minuteman III through 2050,” said the report, which was released Wednesday. “The Minuteman III Program Office concluded that operation of Minuteman III until 2050 is feasible.”
Sentinel is the Air Force’s effort to replace the LGM-30G Minuteman III, first deployed in 1970. Last year, the Pentagon announced that the projected cost of the program had grown to $140.9 billion, some 81 percent more than estimated in 2020. Some of the increase is due to “staffing problems, delays with clearance processing, information technology infrastructure challenges, and supply chain disruptions,” as the Union of Concerned Scientists put it, writing off a 2023 GAO report. Another part is due to the 2020 decision to sole-source engine production. But the main reason, Air Force officials have said, was the service’s unworkable plan to reuse existing ground infrastructure, including silos, command centers, and communications networks.
The program was halted last year, but work resumed over the summer after Air Force officials approved interim plans to “restructure” the Sentinel program. But the delays have service officials reckoning with the need to keep today’s ICBMs flying even further past their planned retirement.
“According to Global Strike Command officials, prior to the Sentinel delays announced in 2024, the Air Force was exploring courses of action to sustain Minuteman III operational test launches past 2030. With delays to Sentinel, the Air Force will need to flight test Minuteman III through 2045, according to Minuteman III program office officials,” the report said.
The report also said the delays to the Sentinel program are exacerbating shortages among maintainers and missile-field security personnel.
“While the Air Force has taken some actions to prepare operators, maintainers, and security forces for the transition, the Air Force has not developed a schedule for construction of a Sentinel test facility. The test facility is necessary early in the transition as part of a multistep process to revise policy and instructions that will be needed to prepare security forces for the transition and concurrent operation of Minuteman III and Sentinel,” it said.
Finally, the report says, the Air Force isn’t planning well enough to head off additional cost and schedule overruns as problems occur.
“Global Strike Command has developed planning documents for the transition but has not developed a risk management plan or other risk management tools consistent with leading project management practices. Sentinel delays present an opportunity to develop and integrate these risk management tools into transition planning to establish an organized, methodical framework for managing risk. Having a process in place to manage this megaproject’s myriad risks will be critically important to ensure decision makers have a full understanding of transition risks,” it says.
The report also includes the Pentagon’s response: “The Department concurs with the report as written.”
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