Braxton Taylor
In a new first, Pakistan and India exchanged drone attacks overnight, officials from the two countries said Thursday as the nuclear-armed militaries extended a cycle of attacks and counterattacks that erupted Wednesday in response to an apparent terrorism incident that killed 26 people at a resort in late April.
Pakistan also allegedly fired unspecified missiles toward at least 15 different targets inside northern and western India. “These were neutralised by the Integrated Counter UAS Grid and Air Defence systems,” India said in its statement Thursday. Pakistani forces also attacked Indian positions “using mortars and heavy calibre artillery” at six locations across Jammu and Kashmir, India said.
India responded by attacking Pakistani air defense units “in the same domain [and] with [the] same intensity as Pakistan,” including an air defense system in Lahore, India’s Defense Ministry said. U.S. Embassy officials in Lahore advised personnel to shelter in place “Due to reports of drone explosions, downed drones, and possible airspace incursions in and near Lahore.”
Expert reax: “In terms of intensity and risks, I think it is fair to now describe this as the most dangerous crisis between the two since 1999,” Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote online Thursday. “In 2019, by comparison, an off-ramp (a captured [Indian Air Force] pilot) presented itself to both sides unexpectedly,” he said. Nothing similar has been observed so far in these latest rounds of fighting.
The nuclear consideration: “Escalation dominance by the conventionally superior state against its insecure, weaker adversary that relies on a low threshold for nuclear use is a dangerous game,” Panda noted. “Incentives for Pakistan to introduce nuclear signals to the mix will grow,” he predicted.
A response from Pakistan is expected soon, a senior official told the Guardian Thursday, without elaborating. Read more from Reuters and the Associated Press.
From the region: “North Korea fires short-range missiles possibly in performance test for export,” Reuters reported separately Thursday.
Welcome to this Thursday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter dedicated to developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1846, the U.S. Army fought a larger Mexican force near Brownsville, Texas, in what’s been remembered as the Battle of Palo Alto, the first large engagement of the nearly two-year-long Mexican-American War.
Around the Defense Department
Army leaders clash with Connecticut lawmaker on future of Black Hawk helicopter. After SecDef Pete Hegseth tasked the service with axing programs to free funds for new priorities, service leaders eagerly responded with a cut list that includes the UH-64D Apache, M10 Booker, Humvee, and the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle. But the Army doesn’t have the final say on how it spends its money, and the people in charge on Capitol Hill had a lot of questions Wednesday as Secretary Dan Driscoll and Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George sat for their first posture hearing of the 2026 budget season. Defense One’s Meghann Myers reports, here.
Trump’s F-15 basing decision adds to Air Force’s training troubles. President Donald Trump’s surprise decision to base a squadron of F-15EX fighter jets at Selfridge Air National Guard Base in Michigan will strain the Air Force’s already overburdened F-15 training pipeline—potentially forcing the service to reevaluate its training standards or divert operational aircraft to training roles. That’s according to the Air Force, as reported by Defense One’s Audrey Decker.
Additional reading: “Could striking first in cyber be new Pentagon policy?” Defense One’s Lauren C. Williams writes.
Yemen
Trump praises the Houthis for “bravery.” Speaking to reporters at the White House, the president said of the Iran-backed Houthis, “We hit them very hard. They had a great capacity to withstand punishment. They took tremendous punishment.”
“You can say there’s a lot of bravery there,” Trump said Wednesday, “But we honor their commitment and their word,” he added, referring to an alleged ceasefire he claims the Houthis agreed to earlier this week, the same day the U.S. Navy fighting the Houthis lost its third $67 million aircraft during carrier flight deck operations.
That’s a big retreat from “They will be completely annihilated!” as Trump insisted four days into his Houthi bombing campaign, Operation Rough Rider.
Industry reax: “The top five container-shipping companies said they…had no immediate plans to return to the area where the Houthis began targeting merchant ships in late 2023 in response to the war in the Gaza Strip,” the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. “We are not going back any time soon,” one firm said. One former British naval officer emphasized “the agreement is vague and makes no clear mention of ending attacks on commercial shipping.”
A Pentagon official advised patience as well. “It will take some time before the southern Red Sea is safe, and we are working on it,” the unnamed official told the Journal. Two carrier strike groups, the Harry S. Truman and the Carl Vinson, have been used for this mission.
Observation: Echoing America’s Vietnam debacle as well as its Iraq fiasco, the latest U.S. strategy of largely blowing things up is highly unlikely to yield durable success against the Houthis in Yemen. Fifty-six days of intense and costly—and, for now, abandoned—U.S. airstrikes under Trump would seem to suggest this.
In other words, “There is a focus today on military responses to the Houthi threat. These are essential, but over the long term, economic, informational, and political measures have a greater potential to undermine the Houthi regime,” Israeli-American analyst Ari Heistein of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies writes in a lengthy new report published Thursday.
Heistein’s advice: “Washington and its security partners should target high-value regime stockpiles, especially of hard currency and fuel, with airstrikes; employ powerful images of key assets being destroyed to puncture the Houthi aura of invincibility; and target Houthi leadership of key organs of regime control. In the medium- to long-term, the United States and its security partners should pursue a broader effort to disrupt the Houthis’ control of Yemen’s internet, revitalize sanctions enforcement, slash Houthi revenues from Hodeidah port, block the access of the Houthi banking system to global financial networks, isolate the Houthis diplomatically, and strengthen their rivals within Yemen.”
But there’s also much more to his argument, including advice on reducing the Houthis’ financial support networks, attempting to unite anti-Houthi forces inside Yemen, adding more sanctions, and “ramping up public diplomacy efforts, including with a dedicated staff to monitor and engage international media and debunk the notion that the brutal Houthi regime is in any way defending Yemen or its people.” Read on, here.
From the region:
China
Here’s a closer look at the space company accused of helping the Houthis. “A private, state-linked Chinese space company, accused by U.S. officials of helping Yemen’s Houthi rebels by providing satellite imagery used to target U.S. and international vessels in the Red Sea, illustrates the complexity of today’s great power competition. But a look at what public records tell us about the company is even more illuminating,” write Matt Bruzzese of BluePath Labs and Peter Singer of New America.
“Chang Guang Satellite Technology is emblematic of the new breed of Chinese space company: nimble, innovative, and at least nominally private—yet with close ties to China’s party-state and military.” Read on, here.
Putin’s Ukraine invasion
Ukraine: Russia is violating its own ceasefire. BBC: “Russia’s unilateral, three-day ceasefire has proved to be a farce because of continued attacks across the front line, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, has said.” Sybiha accused Russia of violating its self-declared ceasefire 734 times and said that Ukraine was responding “appropriately” to every attack.
Moscow announced the ceasefire as part of its Victory Day celebration, which marks the defeat of Nazi Germany on May 9. Russia officials retorted that Ukraine had violated ceasefire 488 times. More, here.
Russia is building a major new explosives facility in Siberia, Reuters reports off public documents and satellite imagery. “The documents show that a new production line is being built at a factory owned by state defence company Ya. M. Sverdlov Plant, a major Russian manufacturer of military-grade explosives,” the news agency writes. “Moscow’s ability to muster more shells than Ukraine has played an important part in Russia’s battlefield successes during the conflict, which has mostly been fought with big guns and drones. However, Moscow has needed to import huge quantities of shells from North Korea, and its own munitions stockpiles are dwindling, according to the United States and Ukraine.” More, here.
Additional reading: “US, Russia explore ways to restore Russian gas flows to Europe, sources say,” Reuters reported Thursday from London Moscow.
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