How Tariff Uncertainty Is Impacting Hunters and Anglers

The insecurity took root quickly, even after the Trump administration backed off a week later when pausing most “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days, limiting them to 10% for countries that didn’t retaliate against the United States. At the same time, it stood by 25% tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico.

On May 12, the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause on existing tariffs. The U.S. dropped its tariff on China to 30%, down from 145%; and China lowered its tariff on the U.S. to 10%, down from 125%. Even so, U.S. business leaders sheltered in place rather than risk their companies’ fortunes to economic storms that defy definition and reliable forecasts.

About the only certainty is that hunters will keep hunting, anglers will keep fishing, and campers will keep camping in the year ahead.

“I believe tariffs will impact equipment purchases, but there will be no major declines in participation,” said Mark Damian Duda, founder and executive director of Responsive Management, a survey-based research group that specializes in natural resource and outdoor recreation.

Duda bases his prediction on previous disruptions to international business. Outdoor activities increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Great Recession of December 2007 to June 2009, and the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Even though the U.S. and world economies suffered greatly from those events, outdoor recreation industries generally fared better than most because hunters and anglers still bought, repaired, or repurposed whatever gear they needed to stay in the woods and on the water.

MeatEater contacted several manufacturers and trade-group representatives to get their takes on the economic crisis. They generally agreed with Duda that outdoor recreation is uncommonly resilient, but believe it’s too soon to know whether spending by hunters and other outdoor recreationists can cushion the impact of 2025’s trade wars and tariff battles.

“Businesses need certainty to operate effectively, but the business environment is anything but certain right now,” said Dan Forster, vice president and chief conservation officer of the Archery Trade Association. “Tariffs are affecting the archery industry in every conceivable way. Our folks are very nervous, so it’s hard to predict anything beyond next week. Until there’s some consistency in policy and direction, businesses are battening down the hatches. They’re trying to use materials and products they have on hand, and doing whatever they can to avoid rash decisions.”

Larry Keane, senior vice president and general counsel for the National Shooting Sports Foundation, reports widespread whiplash among NSSF members. “It’s a full-time job keeping track of the state of play,” Keane told MeatEater. “We’re monitoring the situation and trying to provide accurate information to our members, but it’s really hard to predict how things will shake out.”

Logan Williamson, director of product for First Lite in Hailey, Idaho, said consumers should expect to see price increases across the world’s economy, not just for outdoors apparel and equipment. If nothing else, higher prices could force hard choices.

“Our consumers are really into their pursuits, so they’re a little more ‘elastic’ about prices than other consumers,” Williamson said. “They look for value in versatility. I expect they’ll try to make their stuff last longer. They’ll also look for ways to make their stuff more versatile, like whitetail hunters repurposing more of their clothes for spring turkey hunting. But if they rip a big hole in the down-insulated parka they use for sheep hunting or late-season hunting, they’ll find ways to get a new down-filled parka. Nothing else can do that job as well. When hunters need a hammer for a specific job, they won’t substitute a screwdriver.”

Even so, predicting actual price hikes and their impact on loyal customers is proving nearly impossible. “Everything keeps changing, and no one knows how long each change will last,” Williamson said. “A lot of big retailers accept that they’ll probably see big price increases this year, but they’re hoping it’s temporary. This wait-and-see game makes it hard to plan. It’s challenging to keep long-term projects and new-product development in motion.”

Ben Summers, vice president of T.R.U. Ball Archery (arrow releases) and Axcel Archery (sights, stabilizers, scopes, and finger tabs) in Madison Heights, Virginia, helps run two family-owned companies that rely on high-end machinists to manufacture precision equipment. Besides making releases, bow sights, and other archery accessories, the Summers’ other business does contract work in the nuclear field for the Defense Department. Whatever the job, unpredictable tariffs aggravate the challenges of finding qualified machinists and paying escalating wages.

“We have more orders for our Axcel Driver bow sight than we can manufacture in the next year, but we’ve also had a very high spike in materials costs,” Summers said. “The price on the aluminum we use went up 20 to 30%. Our supplier expects prices to decline in two to three months as aluminum imports decline and American sources crank up. So, I expect things will keep improving for us this year, but I don’t know what the whole economy will do. Some of the things going on right now completely puzzle me. I don’t know if anyone understands some of those things. Business is much easier when things are status quo.”

Jeff Bruss, owner/founder of Rugid Gear, a self-described “mom-and-pop” manufacturer of waterproof backpacks and duffel bags in Three Lakes, Wisconsin, feared the 145% tariffs on China-made products would sink his young company because Chinese manufacturers make most of his RGD products. The 44% tariff he previously paid made up almost half the sales price of RGD bags and packs, but Bruss made it work by selling directly to dealers.

But the 145% tariff killed those efforts. In late April, Bruss worked with his main manufacturer to store everything in a warehouse for 30 days rather than pay the import tariff, hoping for a policy change to spare his business. He saw no other option. He said big companies can survive by spreading their costs across “tens of thousands of items,” whereas he deals in hundreds of items.

When ordering from his regular manufacturers in China and Vietnam, Bruss usually teeters at the edge of their minimum order quantities, or “MOQs.” That leaves him with “damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t” choices.

“If I pay the 40- to 50% tariff we had and get my stuff, but an hour later the tariff drops far below that, my competition is suddenly sitting with goods that might cost 100% less than what I paid,” Bruss said. “Unpredictable tariffs don’t let you take any chances. No matter how hard you study the situation and look for alternatives, you’re stuck in place.”

Keane said the NSSF has members on both sides of such divides, large and small; foreign and domestic. “You expect companies to absorb as much of those unplanned price increases as possible, and pass the rest on to consumers, but that isn’t economically viable for some products,” he said. “Ammunition importers can’t sell their products in the U.S. at the price those (25%) tariffs impose. I know of a factory in Eastern Europe that has already shut down and put several hundred employees on vacation. It can’t survive long without the U.S. market.”

Companies with U.S.-based manufacturing have generally fared better than those relying on offshore work since April 2. Even so, U.S. manufacturers like Summers remain nervous about the volatile economy and on-again, off-again tariff policies.

Another such businessman is Paul Lewis, founder and lead designer for FHF Gear in Bozeman, Montana. Lewis said the company’s production facilities are “rolling without issues” despite widespread uncertainties in the global economy.

“I’ve always been a big fan of keeping things here in the U.S., so we source almost all of our materials from the U.S. and put everything together here,” Lewis said. “One of the few things we buy from China are zipper-pulls, which cost 8 cents each. Even if you tack a 145% tariff onto those, it’s still 10 times less expensive than our only U.S. option right now, which cost $2 each.”

Lewis said FHF makes high-end products that customers view as long-term investments. But even that standard generates fear in today’s economy. “You worry that people will start hesitating to pay big money, not knowing how their day-to-day expenses might change in the months ahead,” Lewis said. “I also wonder if other U.S. companies will turn to some manufacturing facilities we use and overload them. With everything changing daily, if not hourly, we face uncertainties I can’t ignore.”

Amid the speculation and “what-if” scenarios, manufacturers remind themselves their business foundations were strong heading into 2025. For instance, firearms and ammunition manufacturers have solid inventories, roughly where they were before the 2020 pandemic, Keane said.

“If you look at where sales were in 2005, 2015, and now 2025, most of our companies would say they’re very happy with where things are today,” Keane told MeatEater. “We gained 22 million new gun owners in 2020, target shooting is increasing, and hunting is more or less holding its own.”

To Keane’s point, annual data compiled by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives show the U.S. produced 2.14 million “long guns” (rifles and shotguns) in 2005, which aligns with annual production over the previous 13 years. Soon after, however, annual production boomed. Starting in 2012, and continuing through 2022 (the most recent ATF data available), long-gun production exceeded 2.5 million every year, and surpassed 4 million seven of the 13 years, with a high of 5.2 million in 2013.

In addition, ammunition manufacturers employed over 13,400 people in 2022, and those workers produced over $5.8 billion in goods. As of mid-May this year, ammo manufacturing and supplies are stable, prices are below pandemic-period highs, and there are no ammo shortages. Keane concedes tariffs raise costs for companies importing ammunition and ammo components, but said a 10% tariff on imports differs little from normal inflation fluctuations.

Meanwhile, industry experts hope the recent tariff reductions to 30% for China-made goods will restart trade with the U.S. as prices fall on optics and soft goods like boots, clothes, and gun cases. And though trade essentially stopped when tariffs were 145% for Chinese imports, it forced soft-good manufacturers to explore other manufacturing options.

But those other options weren’t always in the United States. Industry experts say the expertise and equipment for making packs, clothes, and footwear will likely remain rooted in Southeast Asia. That’s why many companies long reliant on Chinese labor and materials explored their options in Cambodia and Bangladesh while updating and possibly renegotiating business in Vietnam.

“No matter what you’re manufacturing, people have been working their supply chains and trying to find alternatives, but that doesn’t happen quickly and it doesn’t necessarily restore American manufacturing,” Keane said.

Forster shares similar concerns. A quarter-century ago, the manufacturers of most bows, arrows, and myriad archery and bowhunting equipment boasted, “Made in the USA.” Forster said that’s still true for most bows, as well as arrows manufactured by Easton. But almost all other carbon arrows and most archery/bowhunting accessories are made overseas, Forster said, with China presumably “head and shoulders above most other countries” in manufacturing.

“The (Trump) administration’s stated goal is to onshore more jobs for the United States,” Keane said. “You understand and appreciate that goal, but getting there can’t happen overnight in this country. Buying land for new factories, getting the necessary building and environmental permits, equipping the buildings, and hiring and training skilled employees to run the machinery … that all takes a good number of years.”

Forster worries it could take even longer. “Today’s manufacturing processes run the gamut from super clean and environmentally friendly to super-dirty, contaminant-rich pollutants,” he said. “The dirtier the process, the harder it will be to build that factory and bring manufacturing home. That job might take decades, not years.”

Meanwhile, every time a nation imposes a tariff — or relaxes, pauses, or negotiates it without clearly stated goals and reasons — it only reinforces uncertainty.

“Even if we know the situation today, we usually know little or nothing about tomorrow or next week,” Forster said. “Do you wait to order more aluminum, hoping for the price to drop, even though you need it tomorrow? Or do you double down today before the price goes up even more? We’ve been in that spot since early April, and we’ll keep playing there the next few weeks, months, or years before we again have a stable playing field. Until that happens, I’m guessing we’ll have enough pain to share with everyone in our industry.”

No matter that pain and frustration, companies must still satisfy consumers’ expectations and reinforce their trust.

“It’s day by day, taking everything one step at a time,” Williamson said. “You still have contracts to honor and customers to satisfy. You might even have to reinvent certain products to meet your obligations. But whatever the day and no matter the situation, you must protect your brand and maintain the product’s quality.”