Listen to the article
Recent U.S.-Russian talks about ending Moscow’s war on Ukraine should not be taken as a sign that Russia poses less of a threat to the United States and Europe, according to a new report from Estonia’s foreign-intelligence agency.
“Despite this illusory thaw, Russia continues to regard the U.S. as its principal global adversary,” says “International Security and Estonia 2026,” released Tuesday.
Such talks are designed to “exploit the new U.S. administration to restore bilateral relations,” the report says. That could facilitate Russian espionage, influence operations, and the movement of sanctioned goods. Most importantly, it could erode U.S. international influence, creating new opportunities for Russia to expand its own regional dominance.
The report says Russian leader Vladimir Putin intends such talks to benefit him in two ways: “First, by binding U.S. and Russian interests more closely together; second, by widening what Moscow perceives as existing rifts between the U.S. and Europe.”
U.S. and other high-ranking officials across NATO member states frequently describe Estonia as a leader in intelligence collection and public dissemination, particularly regarding Russia. Estonia, for instance, accurately predicted Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, then moved to provide Ukraine with anti-tank weapons and draw global attention to Moscow’s plans.
The restoration of U.S.-Russian relations may not be viewed as damaging by the current White House. The National Security Strategy released in December does not explicitly call Russia a threat, as previous strategies have. Instead, the NSS calls for “strategic stability” with the Kremlin, while echoing Russian criticisms of the European Union for its “current trajectory.”
The Estonian report notes that Moscow’s official messaging frames European states as more hostile than the United States, which remains treaty allies with many of them.
Some White House observers and high-ranking defense officials have suggested that normalizing relations with Russia could pull Moscow away from Beijing to isolate China—a strategy often called the “reverse Kissinger.”
But China-Russia cooperation is deepening, as noted by the Estonian report and the Munich Security Report 2026, released Monday.
“China and Russia present a united front internationally in their pursuit of an alternative governance model intended to marginalize Western states,” says the Munich report.
The report adds that Moscow’s propaganda frames the war in Ukraine as a “civilizational struggle between Russia and the West,” led by Washington.
China is filling the voids left by the U.S. retreat from international institutions and the implementation of aggressive tariffs.
As the Munich report observes, “For countries such as Brazil, U.S. trade pressure has hardened their stance vis-à-vis Washington and could push them closer to Beijing. Indeed, China has happily stepped into the void left by the U.S. retreat from global trade.”
Read the full article here
12 Comments
I’m skeptical about the US’s decision not to explicitly call Russia a threat in the National Security Strategy, especially given Estonia’s accurate prediction of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Doesn’t this downplay the severity of the situation?
It’s possible that the US is trying to take a more nuanced approach, but it’s hard to see how this wouldn’t be perceived as a sign of weakness by Russia.
The Estonian intelligence report’s claim that Russia views the US as its principal global adversary is concerning, especially given the recent talks about ending Moscow’s war on Ukraine. This perceived thaw in relations could be a tactic to exploit the new US administration and restore bilateral relations, which could ultimately erode US international influence.
But isn’t it possible that improving relations with Russia could also have benefits, such as reducing tensions and creating more opportunities for cooperation?
I agree, it’s crucial to consider the potential consequences of normalizing relations with Russia, especially given their history of espionage and influence operations.
The Estonian report’s observation that Moscow’s propaganda frames the war in Ukraine as a ‘civilizational struggle between Russia and the West’ is telling, and it’s crucial that the US and Europe develop a more effective counter-narrative to combat this.
It’s interesting that the Munich report notes that countries like Brazil are being pushed closer to Beijing due to US trade pressure, highlighting the need for a more nuanced approach to international trade and diplomacy.
The report’s mention of sanctioned goods and the potential for Russian espionage and influence operations is a reminder that the US needs to be vigilant in its dealings with Russia, even if relations appear to be improving.
The fact that China is filling the voids left by the US retreat from international institutions and the implementation of aggressive tariffs is a significant concern, and it’s surprising that the US isn’t taking a stronger stance to counter this.
The idea of a ‘reverse Kissinger’ strategy, where normalizing relations with Russia could pull Moscow away from Beijing and isolate China, seems unlikely given the deepening cooperation between China and Russia, as noted in the Munich Security Report 2026.
I’m curious about the potential implications of the US’s ‘strategic stability’ approach with Russia, and how this will play out in terms of US-Europe relations and global governance.
The report’s mention of Russia’s intention to bind US and Russian interests more closely together, while also widening perceived rifts between the US and Europe, is a clever strategy that could have significant implications for global politics.