Three ‘meta trends’ are reshaping warfare, INDOPACOM commander says

HONOLULU—Five years ago, when then-Adm. Phil Davidson told senators that China would attempt to seize Taiwan as early as 2027, “it seemed like it was a good long way out,” Adm. Sam Paparo said Monday.

“And the danger in that was that we thought that it was some holiday that we had until 2027 for ourselves. But there could be a war of, quote, necessity, anytime between now and Aug. 1 of 2027, and there can be a war of choice anytime after August of 2027,” the leader of U.S. Indo-Pacom Command told a standing-room-only audience at the Honolulu Defense Forum, referring to the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army.

“We have to be ready now, we have to be ready in 2027, we have to be ready in 2028.”

One way the command will prepare is by incorporating information operations into “every plan, every investment, every operation,” Paparo said. “We don’t bolt information operations on the end. We integrate and suffuse it from the very start.”

Information operations, cognitive operations, and cyber operations as a “salient form of warfare” is one of three “meta trends” Paparo said are reshaping modern conflict.

“Entities can exploit the information environment where perceptions can outpace facts and disrupt decision making—often without firing a shot,” he said.

At the forum, Palauan President Surangel Whipps described Chinese efforts to sour his country’s populace on its relationship with the United States and its decision to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation. 

“The narrative that’s being taught [is] that the U.S. militarization of Palau has put a target on Palau, and really that’s a false narrative,” Whipps said. “Because whether the U.S. is helping improve ports, helping improve airports, building over-the-horizon radar, the opportunity is to ensure that we are protected.”

China also reminds Palau that “2027 is coming soon, and soon you won’t have a partner,” Whipps said. “They basically tell us, ‘If you don’t denounce [Taiwan] and join us now, you’ll be left out in the cold.’”

But unlike China, which invests billions of dollars globally on messaging and information operations, in the United States that has “always been something that was sprinkled on top of an existing policy, rather than conceived of… a really central domain of competition, which it is, and Beijing absolutely sees it that way,” Ely Ratner, the former assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs, told Defense One.

Ratner praised Paparo’s decision to prioritize information operations, though he pointed out that the entire United States government needs a strategy.

“China’s ability to shape the narrative really does have an enormous effect on the behavior of other countries,” he said, but noted that unlike China, which has built a false image of itself and maligned the United States in its messaging, the United States does not need to engage in disinformation.

“It’s just about really being clear about the kinds of things that China is doing around the world, and doing it in an effective way, such that it resonates with governments and populations in key regions,” he said. 

And the messaging must be backed up by real policy. But the Trump administration has been moving in the opposite direction, shuttering the State Department office responsible for countering false narratives and gutting the U.S. Agency for Global Media.

Paparo also advocated for a whole-of-government approach.

“The military has a significant role in this, but frankly, it is the elected civilian leaders. It is our diplomats. It’s our other instruments of national power that have an even greater role,” he said. “We’ve got to attack this.”