After heavy Reaper drone loses in Iran, Air Force accelerates affordable future replacement

The loss of dozens of MQ-9 Reapers to Iranian air defenses is speeding up the U.S. Air Force effort to replace its venerable strike-and-sensor remotely piloted aircraft with something cheaper yet better, service leaders say.

“As we get to the end of the MQ-9 life, there was some early talk of where do we want to go afterwards, and candidly, as a result of some of the losses that we’ve experienced in combat operations, that discussion sort of got accelerated,” said Lt. Gen. Christopher J. Niemi, the Air Force’s chief modernization officer, at a Thursday roundtable with reporters.

The service has lost at least 45 MQ-9s during Donald Trump’s war on Iran, roughly one-quarter of its fleet, the Washington Post reported in August. It’s not clear just how much that fleet cost, but an Air Force fact sheet puts the unit cost of one MQ-9 variant at $51 million in 2011 dollars—or nearly $82 million today.

Niemi said the service wants to buy at least 180 MQ-9 replacements, dubbed Massed Modular Aircraft, or MMA, and at a much cheaper price point. He said the price of one MMA should be about half of the $20 million Collaborative Combat Aircraft, whose first production contracts were awarded in June, four months ahead of schedule.

But those rough price goals—$20 million for a CCA, $10 million for an MMA—are for bare airframes, not the pricey sensors and systems that enable the drones to do their jobs. 

As a service spokesperson put it later, the numbers “do not refer to total missionized costs.”

Niemi said this reflects lessons from past and ongoing wars.

“What we’re seeing, in part based on our assessment of the threats around the world, and in part based on our real-world experience, is that you’re going to lose more military hardware in future conflicts than you have historically, and that’s what’s driving us to this sort of fundamental principle that we need things that are easier to produce, cheaper to buy, and that we can afford to lose more of them,” he said. “Right now, we don’t have a whole lot of that, so we’re sort of trying to move the needle by bringing on things like MMA, so we have more options for the warfighter in the future.”

For that $10 million price tag, the service also wants an increased payload of 2,800 pounds and an unfueled combat radius of 2,300 nautical miles and 8,000 nautical miles for a one-way mission, according to a July Defense Innovation Unit solicitation. General Atomics, the Reaper’s manufacturer, has a souped-up version of the MQ-9, the SkyGuardian, which boasts a larger wingspan, range, and endurance. But top service officials don’t seem as likely to bet on it.

“One of the options that would be considered would be something like an MQ-9B, which is basically an updated and improved MQ-9A, but there are some reasons that we don’t think that’s the direction that we want to go as an Air Force,” Niemi said. “The main reason is, and and we’re seeing this in our experience in the Middle East and as we look at threats around the world, that you need to have a portfolio of assets that’s more attritable than the ones we’ve historically had.”

General Atomics spokesperson C. Mark Brinkley defended the Reaper’s service record and pointed out that the Air Force’s top uniformed leader has praised the aircraft’s use during Operation Epic Fury. He also said the company has worked with the Air Force “to hit cost targets for three decades” and that it would continue with other programs.

“The MQ-9’s unique combination of endurance, payload, range, sensors, weapons, connectivity, adaptability and reliability is precisely what enables mission effects that others struggle to replicate,” Brinkley said. “Today’s Reaper isn’t the same Reaper that rolled out 25 years ago. It’s been enhanced and upgraded many, many times. It’s also been called the MVP of Epic Fury, for good reason. We can debate many things, but at least we all agree that it’s a special aircraft that gets the job done.”

The Senate Armed Services Committee is backing the platform in its version of the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act by placing limits on how many can be retired and calls for more to be purchased by 2028.

General Atomics has also reportedly teased a new MMA offering with a 10,000-nautical-mile ferry range and claims that it can carry four Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles. Brinkely, while still defending the Reaper, also boosted its next-generation aircraft.

“Our new Wildfire aircraft addresses all of the concerns posed by the MMA solicitation. We can deliver years earlier and maintain the same high quality,” Brinkley said. “You can have everything that makes Reaper special, plus more, at a price that doesn’t break the bank. Reaper is special. Wildfire is special, too.”