Canada’s GCAP decision is about relationships, not the F-35

Canada’s decision to become the first observer nation in the Global Combat Air Program, or GCAP, a multinational effort to build a sixth-generation fighter, is less about finding an alternative to its ongoing F-35 purchases and more about building non-U.S. defense relationships.

First, a look at Canada’s current fighter requirements. The Royal Canadian Air Force flies Boeing CF-18 Hornets that were originally expected to retire by 2020. Ottawa had planned since 2010 to replace them with 65 F-35s, but scuttled the plan as the cost of the Joint Strike Fighter continued to rise. 

The government examined other options, including the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and the Saab Gripen, in a follow-on competition marked by a chaotic process and a trade dispute with Boeing about government commercial aircraft subsidies and negotiations over industrial benefits. Justin Trudeau’s government ultimately decided to buy 88 F-35s.

That changed when Donald Trump returned to the White House. Within a year, the American president’s new tariffs and comments about annexing Canada deeply strained the once-ironclad relationship. The fallout reshaped Canada’s political future. Trudeau’s Liberal Party was facing abysmal approval ratings, leading to his ouster as prime minister prior to the 2025 federal election. His replacement, Mark Carney, promised to stand up to Trump in the trade war, which ultimately secured his Liberal party an election victory.

Carney has continued to push back against Trump, including outlining plans to distance Canada from its reliance on U.S. defense equipment. He put the F-35 procurement plans on hold to review the program and determine if a different aircraft would better serve Canada’s broader interests. Ottawa is already contractually committed to the first 16 F-35s, so at this point the government is deciding whether to continue with a pure fleet of F-35s or adopt a mixed fleet that would likely integrate the Saab Gripen. The Royal Canadian Air Force has long preferred the F-35, but the program remains a political negotiating tool.

Enter GCAP 

Ottawa’s involvement in GCAP—a joint effort of Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom—isn’t about replacing the CF-18, which will be retired sooner rather than later. Before putting the F-35 on hold, Ottawa anticipated receiving its final new aircraft in 2032. However, GCAP isn’t expected to enter service until 2035, and any theoretical Canadian aircraft wouldn’t arrive until well after that date, meaning it isn’t a viable platform to replace the CF-18. Canadian Defense Minister David McGuinty confirmed as much on Monday when he said any GCAP involvement is a separate issue from the ongoing F-35 review.

Rather, Canada’s move is about building relationships and realigning strategic partnerships at a time of deteriorating relations with the U.S. Canada is increasingly looking abroad to bolster defense and industrial ties with other nations. Joining GCAP, even if only as an observer, serves as way to learn more about sixth-generation fighter capabilities, increase industrial collaboration with allies overseas, and strengthen ongoing security arrangements. “Today is about more than a program, it’s about an enduring strength of partnership,” McGuinty said at a press conference announcing the GCAP news.

McGuinty also spoke of a world that is becoming more contested, with technology and conflict transforming at an unparalleled pace. “The nations that can innovate together, build together, and stand together will be best positioned to meet the challenges of tomorrow,” he said. These sentiments echo a speech Prime Minister Carney gave at the January 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. There, he called for increased cooperation among middle powers to hedge against uncertainty and the rise of “hard power.” While Carney didn’t mention the U.S. or Trump by name, the speech clearly served to highlight Canada’s displeasure with the new status quo in Washington.

Walking a fine line

Canada finds itself in a difficult position. It faces diminished trust in its closest ally and has outlined plans to reduce its reliance on American military equipment in the future. At the same time, U.S. and Canadian defense interests remain closely linked through shared security under the North American Aerospace Defense Command. U.S. and Canadian defense industrial bases are also deeply integrated, and Canada already operates many U.S. platforms. The tense relationship also hasn’t derailed other recent efforts to procure U.S. equipment, such as Boeing P-8A maritime patrol aircraft, General Atomics MQ-9B drones, and Lockheed Martin High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).

As with other European nations that have expressed a desire to rely more heavily on domestic hardware, shifting away from reliance on U.S. equipment is something that would take years to achieve and is a goal that will be significantly impacted by future administrations. For now, GCAP observer status doesn’t change Canada’s fighter fleet or its F-35 review. What it does is give Ottawa a new seat at the table as it works to diversify its defense relationships beyond Washington.