Report: US doesn’t have enough interceptors for war with China

The United States would run out of the interceptors it needs to take down Chinese missiles “within days” of a conflict, according to a new report from the Heritage Foundation—the latest in a series of warnings from experts and commanders highlighting a critical inventory gap. 

The White House, Congress, and defense contractors have taken steps to address it. But the ongoing war with Iran has exposed those efforts as insufficient, experts say.

It’s not a new problem. A CSIS report from 2023 concluded that the U.S. would deplete inventories of key missiles, such as Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancements, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors, and Standard Missiles (SM-6 and SM-3), “within the first week of a Taiwan conflict.” A report from May concludes “there will be a window of vulnerability [in terms of U.S. operations in the Pacific] for several years, until inventories return to their previous levels, and another several years before they get to the levels that war planners desire.” 

In January, the White House established a new framework to “triple” the production of PAC-3 missiles from 600 to 2,000 yearly, according to Defense Department estimates. To meet those higher production expectations, leading defense contractors are forming new partnerships with one-time rivals.

On Monday, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and the Department of Defense announced a $3 billion agreement to produce more solid rocket motors for PAC-3s, and to “quadruple” the number of THAAD interceptors over the next seven years. A Northrop Grumman spokesperson pointed to a billion-dollar investment in its Allegany Ballistics Laboratory as a key to allowing the company to double the number of such motors since 2021. Now, the company says it is on track to triple production by 2027.

But even with new agreements and increased contractor investment in factories and labs, the goal the Pentagon set in January is too low, said Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies—especially when the war with Iran is factored in. “Those metrics that were set prior to [Operation Epic Fury]. That was before we just lit off billions of dollars in a decade worth of production per work in some cases.”

The Heritage Foundation report adds some specifics to the war’s cost so far: “During the first four days of Operation Epic Fury, U.S. and allied forces used approximately 1,738 theater surface-to-air munitions to defend against 565 Iranian ballistic missiles and 57 cruise missiles.” 

As a result, the United States has “less than 10 percent of the … interceptors required to deter or, if necessary, prevail, in a protracted, high-intensity conflict with China,” it says, naming PAC-3 MSEs, THAADs, SM-6s, and SM-3s.

The Heritage report is dire, but it may not go far enough, as it does not factor in how China may use low-cost drone warfare to further frustrate U.S. operations in the region. 

In an April hearing, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command leader Adm. Sam Paparo also communicated his concerns about missile shortfalls and a lack of solutions for countering the threat of cheap drones. “Current production timelines are misaligned with operational expenditures and the threats we face,” he said.

Ukraine is facing those threats as a reality right now. Leaders there have said they urgently need Patriot missiles to defend against continued Russian ballistic missile attacks, despite Ukraine’s successes in leveling the drone warfare playing field.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Lockheed Martin on July 28 to discuss the possibility of building its own version of the PAC-3 under a license, which would directly address supply-chain gaps for parts in the long term. But such an agreement would not produce usable missiles until 2030. 

The White House has gone back and forth on the issue. But Ukraine has gotten further with President Donald Trump than it did with his predecessor, Zelenskyy said in May: “I started this conversation with President Biden and I will continue with President Trump. Ukraine has not received a license to manufacture PAC-3. I believe that in the future, perhaps we will obtain one or there will be our own system.”