Lebanon-Israel Pact Fragile After Hezbollah’s Vow of Disruption

Israel and Lebanon’s latest peace deal faces an uncertain future after Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy militant group, this week vowed to derail its implementation.

The framework agreement — signed in Washington — lays out a plan for the gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon, pending “the verified disarmament of non-state armed groups,” referring to Hezbollah. The Lebanese army is meant to move into areas vacated by Israel to assert control.

The U.S.-brokered accord is the first such deal between Israel and Lebanon since 1983, though that pact collapsed due to opposition from various groups in Lebanon, a nation deeply divided along political and religious lines.

U.S. Central Command Admiral Brad Cooper is in Lebanon and has already met with President Joseph Aoun and Lebanese army commander Rodolphe Haykal to discuss the execution of the plan. The deal is closely tied to the U.S.- Iran peace agreement, as Tehran has said Israel must stop attacking Hezbollah before a final deal can be reached.

Yet there’s little evidence that implementing the agreement will be straightforward.

Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, Hezbollah’s closest ally in government, said in comments published Monday that the accord won’t stand and warned of potential civil unrest.

Hezbollah vowed the same.

“What you have done is a project for a strife,” Hezbollah MP Hussein Al Hajj Hasan said, addressing the government. “You have volunteered on behalf of the Americans and Israelis to create this sedition. Beware of sedition! But do not delude yourselves into thinking that you can fulfill any of the pledges you made in this shameful agreement.”

Hours after the U.S. announced the framework agreement, Hezbollah’s supporters took to the streets and tried to block a vital highway in Beirut that leads to the airport before soldiers dispersed them.

The agreement is aimed at helping the Lebanese government and army overpower Hezbollah, while sidelining Iran, an objective that has proved unachievable in the past. On this occasion, the U.S. will provide aid to the Lebanese army, which has previously struggled to make inroads into the better resourced militant group.

“The authors of the agreement were unambiguous in rejecting the idea that Iran has a legitimate role to play in determining the future of Lebanon’s political or security affairs, despite this notion being inherent in the U.S.-Iran MOU,” Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute, wrote in an article, referring to the initial deal signed between Iran and the U.S. that tacitly acknowledged Tehran’s influence over Lebanon.

Lebanon’s government has historically had little influence over Hezbollah, which has undermined its decisions and helped to overthrow administrations it believes to be a threat.

Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel a day after the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Israel retaliated with an air and ground campaign and said it would remove the group from its border areas to secure the safety of northern communities. At least 4,250 people have been killed in the war and a million more have been displaced, especially in areas of Hezbollah’s influence.

Israel launched a similar military operation against Hezbollah in 2024, after almost a year of cross-border skirmishes in parallel with the war in Gaza. Israel killed top Hezbollah officials and degraded its arsenal in that conflict, which ended in a ceasefire in November of that year.

Not everyone is against the latest pact. Several Cabinet members and Hezbollah opponents including the head of the largest parliamentary bloc threw their weight behind the government.

The pact “is the most significant political step taken by the Lebanese state in half a century, to extricate Lebanon and the Lebanese people” from Hezbollah,” said Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces, a Christian political party.

He said the framework would expel the Israeli soldiers and rid Lebanon of Hezbollah and Iran.

The Gulf Corporation Council welcomed the deal. The UAE, once one of Lebanon’s main benefactors along with Saudi Arabia, said it was ready to help the country economically and socially, a sign of Gulf support to the U.S.-backed president.

In Israel, the deal was met positively, though with some doubt that Lebanon would be able to fulfill its side of the agreement.

“This deal is very, very frightening for Hezbollah,” Avi Dichter, a member of Netanyahu’s security Cabinet, told Galey Israel radio. He added there’s a possibility of a “civil war” in Lebanon if the government opted to take on Hezbollah, underlying how tense the situation remains.

—With assistance from Dan Williams.

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